1.) As of today, there are now 158.1M + 35.7M = 193.8M shares outstanding, with today adding 22.6% more dilution … its now basically doubled over the course of the past year!!!
2.) The Liquid Surfaxin is the Lead Program, and it is targeted to a $75M/yr U.S.-only market opportunity, which is currently served by legacy animal-derived products.
3.) If DSCO captured the entire market, and w/ NO further dilution, then the market cap would be $450M, and the corresponding PPS would be $2.32/share.
4.) The next PDUFA date, for the Liquid Surfaxin, is probably Aug or Sept of next year, 2011, so expect the # of shares outstanding to double again, to ~388M … that would correlate to a best-case PPS upon Approval of ~$1.16/share, but of course that assumes DSCO captures 100% of the market, which it won’t.
5.) Amick panicked when he decided to pursue the latest Offering … why did he do that ??? … if you can figure that out, then you’ll probably have the keys to un-raveling the entire DSCO puzzle.
6.) The Perpetual Silence that occurred between the early-Dec. 2009 ASM and now, will most-likely continue thru the end of this year, till this year’s ASM (again, most-likely in Dec.).
7.) Be prepared for little to no real movement in the stock … it will continue to be controlled by one or more MMs.
8.) DSCO Top Mgmt doesn’t care at all about shareholder value, and if you don’t believe me, I suggest you track the dilution since Amick has been with the company … when he took over as Chairman, the number of shares outstanding was only 70.5M, and the dilution has accelerated since he took over as interim-CEO on Aug. 13th.
Disclosure: Used to be a Long-Term Long, until mid-Oct 2009, when the company rejected numerous outright Buyout offers, and decided to pursue 200M new authorized shares instead … bought my first shares shortly after the early-May 2008 Approvable … I would have lost big time, if it wasn’t for the 9/30 pre-market PR … as it stands, I have ZERO shares now, and an overall loss of $3,214 … but more than that, I wasted ALOT of time trying to understand their drug candidates and market potential, all now moot … I will buy back in, if the PPS trends below $0.20/share, but NOT before … the trade isn’t worth the risk, IMO … and, even then, I may decide NOT to jump back in … I am NOT a fan of either Amick or Cooper, and that is a huge under-statement!